discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in ethiopia

Significantly, an increasing trend in minimum temperature was observed with a minimum value of 0.005 C/year in GIN station to a maximum value of 0.12 C/year in DBS station. Therefore, the projected rainfall and temperature have been corrected for biases by using empirical Quantile Mapping. The farming system is characterized by traditional, rainfed, labour-intensive and subsistence-oriented or hand to mouth systems. Understanding projections of extreme precipitation is part of a resilient response to its impacts. Bean, pea, chickpea and lentil production are particularly related to kiremit rains in all stages because these crops are sown in the second week of June. As shown in Figure2, during the period 19802014 the seasonal rainfall trend of the Beressa watershed for the kiremit season shows less rainfall variability throughout the study periods. The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while simulated historical and future climate data were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) datasets under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5. The rate and variability of increasing temperature have dramatically increased, making it more difficult for local communities to foresee the intensity and magnitude of temperature even for the next few years. During the belg (small rainy) season the subdivision indicates a slightly increasing rainfall trend and the bega season (dry season) shows a negative trend, as already presented in Figure2. Water Resources: Rivers, Lakes and Sub-Surface Water, 4.4. Figure 1. Before this period, the maximum temperature was 19.40 C and the minimum temperature was 6.20 C, with an average temperature of 12.80 C, while the time series maximum temperature has increased to 20.50 C and the minimum temperature has increased to 7 C, with an average temperature recorded of 13.75 C (Figure3). The annual rainfall distribution is also variable in time and space. 2014). It could also increase the probability of large fires in the northern and central US Rocky Mountains by 13 to 60 %. Significantly, the increasing long-term annual minimum and maximum temperature during the study periods indicates that it is more likely this would contribute to the increase of mean annual temperature. Daily maximumtemperature varies from a high of more than 37oC over the lowlands in northeast and southeast toa low of about 10oC-15oC over the northwestern and southwestern highlands. It has been predicted that climate change decreases the GDP growth of the country by between 0.5 and 2.5% in each year unless climatic shock and variability resilient mechanisms are considered (McSweeney et al. Abstract: Since China announced its goal of becoming carbon-neutral by 2060, carbon neutrality has become a major target in the development of China's urban agglomerations. The results revealed that the magnitude of significantly increasing trend and variability was observed in mean annual rainfall for DB station (at 0.28 mm/year and 1.07%). With respect to the statistically significant level, only barley and wheat crops are significantly related to belg and kiremit rainfall. Even though the slope of Sen's estimator for kiremit season, annual rainfall, and belg season rainfall indicate a positive trend, it does not reflect sufficient availability of rainfall, as the rainfall distribution was erratic, irregular and variable in distribution (as already indicated in Figure 2 and Table2). 2014). Seasonal analysis of rainfall obtained from MK test statistic results are presented in Table3. Both duration and amount ofrainfall decreases as we move from southwest to north and eastwards. 2005). In this study, to manage the data quality, data series were plotted in order to identify the outliers. 2014; Kishore et al. The variation inthe amount of solar radiation received daily is small throughout the year. Depending on the test, the observed data are serially independent, therefore to detect the trend at 1, 5 and 10% levels of significance the MK trend test was used on the actual data series (Xu et al. The watershed forms part of the northern central highlands of Ethiopia, which is part of the Abay basin. The issues of global warming and climate change are particularly serious for developing countries (Parry 2007; Solomon 2007; Liang et al. Even though the rainfall indicates seasonal and inter-annual variability, the area is characterized by a bimodal rainfall regime, with maximum rainfall concentration during kiremit (summer) season, which extends from June to September. The majorcontrols determining its distributions are latitude and cloud cover. Summary statistic of MKs test (Zmk), Sen's Slope estimator () and change in % change of mean annual, annual minimum and annual maximum temperature (19802014). The variation for the belg season is presented in Figure2. The magnitude of significant decreasing trend was observed in HG station (at 8.62 mm/year and 27.88%). However, studies focusing on Zambia are still limited and future climate variability is poorly understood. Finally, Pearson correlation analysis between climatic variables and crop production was analysed. Water Resources Potentials and Development in Ethiopia, CHAPTER FIVE THE CLIMATE OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 5.2. The problem is high in developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan countries in which the majority of the population live on rainfed agriculture. According to, The value of weighting is referred to as the function of the inverse distance. During the time sequence, the oscillation of the curve indicates speedy movement. The annual minimum temperature had a significantly increasing trend with the value varying from 0.005 C/year and 1.90% in GIN station to 0.12 C/year and 52.40% in the DBS station. To encompass the system, it needsan understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, andTrade Winds. In line with the study by Wu et al. Water harvesting is particularly important for less rainy seasons and integrated water management, and will provide supplementary irrigation during deficits. Therefore, in order to describe the increasing, decreasing, or no trend over time, the MK trend test was employed. For instance, unlikeother parts of Ethiopia, the southern and southwestern highlands experience reducedtemperature. 5.3.1. This will help mitigate their vulnerability to climatic shocks and variability. 2012; Fazzini et al. Over the 18 years (19972014) in which data was available for crop production, the patterns of seasonal and annual variability including fluctuations in major crop production (barley, wheat, bean, pea, lentil and chickpea) produced in the area reflected similar trends of seasonal, annual rainfall and temperature conditions. 2013; Pachauri et al. Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. Density distribution plots of observed climate indices for meteorological stations and gridded indices are also analysed, which indicate significant negative trends in the annual number of frost days and significant increasing trends in warm nights in the EH region over the 19602000 period. 2018 May 30;190(6):368. doi: 10.1007/s10661-018 . Time series of all MMA precipitation indices exhibit significant increasing trends over the 19012099 period. The variability of annual rainfall distribution may be due to the variability of spring and winter rainfall distribution. 2015; Pingale et al. By continuing to use our website, you are agreeing to, Journal of Water, Sanitation & Hygiene for Development, Time series trend analysis of temperature and rainfall in lake Tana Sub-basin, Ethiopia, Potential impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture of a semi-arid basin in Jordan, Distribution of the serial correlation coefficient, Evaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution and concentration of precipitation: a case for the region of Southeastern Anatolia Project, Turkey, Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation measures for rice cultivation in Northeast Thailand, Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Rainfall variability and trends in semi-arid Botswana: implications for climate change adaptation policy, Analysis of climate trends in North Carolina (19491998), Detection of hydrologic trends and variability, Adaptation to climate change in Africa: challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia, Estimating the impact of climate change on agriculture in low-income countries: household level evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Decadal climatic variability, trends, and future scenarios for the North China Plain, Observed monthly precipitation trends in China 19512002, Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. 2011; Pachauri et al. Likewise, as presented in Table2, the distribution of annual rainfall has shown to be very low with high PCI. Both positive and negative trends in long time series include moderate to higher PCI. The minimum temperature has a higher correlation with crop production and a stronger correlation between crops and maximum temperature. Most of the studies about rainfall and temperature characteristics are limited by short-term and long-term time series available for most parts of the regions. Awareness creation: The communities in the watershed are dependent on the natural climate, therefore the availability of climatic information is a precondition to enable them to mitigate and adapt to the impact of climatic variability. Both increasing and decreasing trends of climatic variables were observed. pieces of evidence indicated that a detailed study of the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall and temperature are very important for agricultural/urban planning (mehmet, 2015 ), flood frequency analysis, water resources assessments, assessing and understanding climate change impacts, and other environmental assessments (alemu, 2019; However, in the belg season during the period 19802014 the five years' average moving annual and seasonal rainfall was considerably variable. Correlation between crop production, and rainfall and temperature (19972014). Some of the studies conducted are based on areal averages of spatial climatic variability (Seleshi & Demaree 1995; Osman & Sauerborn 2001). However, inEthiopia, as it is a highland country, tropical temperature conditions have no full spatialcoverage. ABSTRACT: Extreme precipitation exerts damaging impacts on both society and ecosystems. Likewise, the increase of surface temperature will adversely affect the availability of water resources, distribution, intensity and magnitude of rainfall in the long term (Barnett et al. However, after 1999 and onwards, recovery in the long-term average rainfall emerged higher than the average mean, except for the drier conditions in 2002 and 2013 which were lower than the long-term mean. Geography: Definition, Scope and Themes, 1.2. Journal of Water and Climate Change 1 December 2019; 10 (4): 799817. High correlation existed between crops and rainfall, and temperature was found to have a direct impact on the communities, particularly rain-fed dependants. However, during bega season the trend of all stations was downward. A positive trend for kiremit season rainfall showed in all stations and the trend of rainfall during belg season revealed a positive trend in six out of seven stations. This study assessed the historical (1983-2005) and future (2026-2100) rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) trends of the Ziway Lake Basin (Ethiopia). Spatiotemporal distribution and the characteristics of the air temperature of a river source region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Environ Monit Assess. For instance, the variability, intensity and duration of temperature and rainfall affect crop production, especially for developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan countries in which the livelihoods of the population are dependent on subsistence and rainfed farming (Hulme et al. In line with Rashid et al. Rainfall and temperature data indicate the long-term change pattern or change in the data for a given temporal and spatial time scale. Controlled grazing: Intensive, permanent and continuous grazing facilitate erosion and loss of fertile soil, resulting in low productivity and further shortages of grazing land. It is vital to link physical data analysis with endogenous knowledge and practices of farmers to strengthen their adaptive capacity. Here, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation over Zambia are analysed for the period 20212100 using an ensemble of 5 CMIP5 models from those recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Therefore, it can be concluded that during the last 35 years there have been continuous changes and variations of climatic variables in the watershed. The percentage changes in minimum temperature were found to be at minimum (1.90%) and maximum (52.40%) in GIN and DBS stations, respectively. Fluctuating productivity and hence food insecurity for the area is due to long-term variability in the annual and seasonal rainfall. 3.1 Spatial distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia. Significant decreasing trend was observed in HG station ( at 8.62 mm/year and 27.88 % ) regions. 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